You will always find an electric atmosphere in a sportsbook at the start of the NFL season. The crowds are packed in and big bets are being hastily placed. But just four or five weeks into the season, more than half the people have disappeared, and those who are still there are making much smaller bets. The high rollers who’d been betting $500 on a game, were now being much more cautious and maybe wagering $100 on a game.
That’s why over 90% of people who place bets during the season will lose their money. Most people have no plan for how they will wager their money, they just hope they’ll win so that they still have money to wager.
With a bit of strategic planning they can increase their chances of winning over the season and the amount of fun they have following the season as fans. It’s more fun to play than sit on the sidelines and more fun to place bets than simply regret the loss of your previous wagers.
The main reasons that most people will end up losing money are these:
1. Most people place their bets on a whim, or a hunch and don’t use a disciplined approach.
2. They spend a lot of time working out who to bet on, but hardly any working out how they’re going to bet. They have no plan, no idea how they’re going to last out the season.
Is this what you do?
Here’s an easy plan to follow
Breakdown the 16 games this season into four sets of four games. Then breakdown your money the same way, into four equal blocks over the season.
Say for example you have $800 as your bankroll for the season. This means you have four blocks of $200. This also means that you can’t lose your whole bankroll with one bad losing streak.
If you have a great first block and double the money you have wagered you will now have $1000 for the rest of the season. You can then readjust each of your blocks upwards. If you have a bad first block and managed to lose all of your money then you still have the money you’ve already allocated the rest of your blocks.
Repeat this process for the next block and you will be one of the few people able to wager more on each game as the season goes on rather than less.
You can see how this means you still have fun, and still have money to wager with.